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Market behaviour

Investing; Simple but never Easy

Investing; Simple but never Easy

The illustration below explains how to calculate the expected return from a share or the overall market, which is represented by the straight upward sloping line in the chart and is simply the current dividend yield + expected real (above

mw@dmin February 7, 2019February 7, 2019 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour Read more

Make room for ambiguity too

Make room for ambiguity too

As investors we hate ambiguity, we want certainty, which is why we dislike the idea of randomness.    We want our advisors / managers to know exactly what is going on.  Financial experts must speak confidently and explain what is driving

mw@dmin January 24, 2019January 24, 2019 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

My crystal ball predicts far better returns for the next five years

My crystal ball predicts far better returns for the next five years

As it turns out my crystal ball really works.   Unfortunately, I only realise that now after going through all my articles written in 2013 when I correctly predicted the lousy returns of the last 5 years.  Of course, nobody wanted

mw@dmin December 6, 2018December 6, 2018 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

The share prices aren’t irrational, the investors are

The share prices aren’t irrational, the investors are

When the stock market behaves like a yoyo it’s good to remind yourself of what a share price really is and that is a daily offer from someone to buy and / or sell you a business.  If you are

mw@dmin November 22, 2018November 22, 2018 Investment Risk, Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Study shows SA globally misconstrued

Study shows SA globally misconstrued

The World Economic Forum published research, which shows SA to have the highest misperception score in the world in respect of people’s incorrect perception of what is going on versus reality.   Like any statistic there is a risk of

mw@dmin November 8, 2018November 8, 2018 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Now, don’t develop hindsight bias

Now, don’t develop hindsight bias

Don’t congratulate yourself or berate yourself too much your choices are half chance.  This is one of those great wisdoms of life, which can be applied to every aspect of your daily living including your investment successes and failures.  

mw@dmin October 25, 2018October 25, 2018 Investment Risk, Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Uncategorized Read more

Patience will secure you desired long-term returns

Patience will secure you desired long-term returns

I would like to start this article with a fact that is not a Trump falsehood; the share market will provide investors with the best return given time.   Why then does investing in the share market currently feel like a

mw@dmin October 11, 2018October 11, 2018 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Please be more astute in reading the cycles

Please be more astute in reading the cycles

As a 20 year old backpacker hitchhiking through Europe I had planned to run with the Bulls in Pamplona Spain, unfortunately I never made it to Spain.  But thinking back as a fearless or stupid youngster this was probably a

mw@dmin September 28, 2018September 28, 2018 Investment Strategies, Market behaviour, Market Drivers No Comments Read more

No rational decision behind buying, selling

No rational decision behind buying, selling

Investors always want to know the reason for why the market and / or currency went up or down.  If we can explain it then we think we can control it, which makes us feel a lot better than the

mw@dmin September 13, 2018September 13, 2018 Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more

Synthesise the noise rationally

Synthesise the noise rationally

I received an email from a client titled “Panic Attack”.   The gist of the concern being land expropriation and more specifically news flow iro land invasions in Randburg in which several farms were supposedly taken by force.   When I googled

mw@dmin August 30, 2018August 30, 2018 Investor Behaviour, Market behaviour, Market Drivers Read more
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